Space Force’s 18th Space Control Squadron will provide daily updates to. You can keep track of what we know about the rocket’s trajectory in several ways. But the rocket’s general entry point in the atmosphere won’t be known until shortly before it actually happens. As the orbit continues to decay, those uncertainties will become smaller, and predictions for the timing and location of its reentry will get better.

“This is a huge, 18 hour window, and the time/location of re-entry will continue to vary wildly,” the spacecraft tracking company posted on Twitter.

For instance, the puffiness of the atmosphere, the strength of its head winds, and some dynamics within its various layers are determined in part by solar activity, which fluctuates and is tough to predict.Įven a half-hour’s uncertainty in timing could mean the difference between smashing into Illinois or landing half a world away. But that rate of decay depends on multiple factors, not all of which are known. Its orbit is gradually decaying as it interacts with Earth’s upper atmosphere, meaning it’s decreasing in altitude and slowing down. Right now, the core stage is traveling at roughly 18,000 miles an hour and looping around Earth once every 90 minutes or so. In these situations, the “where” is dictated by the “when,” and the timing of the rocket’s reentry is still extremely uncertain. The rocket’s trajectory carries it farther north than New York City and as far south as New Zealand, and any areas in its orbital path between those two points are potential crash sites. Somewhere on Earth-and that’s all we know for sure right now. Space Command announced that it is tracking the rocket stage-the Pentagon tracks more than 27,000 objects in space-and numerous other companies are tracking the object as it slowly descends.

As it gradually loses altitude, the massive object will make an uncontrolled reentry into the atmosphere, meaning the Chinese space program cannot ensure that any surviving debris lands in unpopulated areas. The core stage separated from the module after launch, and it’s been circling the planet ever since, apparently out of control and without any input from the ground. OK, so why is this rocket posing a risk?Ĭhina launched this particular Long March 5B on April 29 to deliver the first module of the country’s new space station into orbit. We break down where this rocket came from, what the risks are, and who’s responsible for damages if pieces fall on personal property. Still, the Chinese rocket is one of the most massive artificial objects to make an uncontrolled return to Earth since 1991, when Russia’s derelict Salyut 7 space station broke up in the sky over Argentina-sparking a lot of questions. Otherwise, relax,” astronomer Jonathan McDowell of the Harvard-Smithsonian Institute for Astrophysics, who is keeping a close eye on the object, wrote on Twitter. “If you are standing in the wrong square meter of Earth of the 250 trillion square meters that its debris might hit, then you are in trouble. While the precise timing of the rocket’s descent is unknown, and it’s unclear exactly where debris might land, experts say there’s no need to worry. A substantial portion of the 22-ton launch vehicle-the core stage of a Long March 5B rocket-will be obliterated as it descends, although large pieces of debris could survive the fall.īased on the rocket’s trajectory, estimates suggest that reentry will occur sometime between 10 a.m. This weekend, a spent, 100-foot-long Chinese rocket is set to plunge through Earth’s atmosphere.

Chinese rocket crash update